The week ahead is expected to be action-packed for Dalal Street investors despite being a truncated one, as all eyes will be on the launch of the ‘T+0’ settlement cycle by exchanges.

Trading will take place for only three days in the week ahead, as stock markets are closed on Monday for Holi and on Friday for Good Friday.

Besides the new trade settlement, the March derivative series will expire, bringing in its share of volatility.

“The coming week is a holiday-shortened one and we expect volatility to remain high due to the scheduled expiry of March month derivatives contracts,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP – technical research at Religare Broking.

The primary market is set to see the launch of as many as 13 IPOs, of which, 12 are in the SME segment. It will be interesting to see how responses to these issues pan out, particularly after the market regulator has raised eyebrows over the high activity in the SME segment and indicated possible price manipulations.

T+0 Settlement

Stock exchanges will introduce the T+0 trade settlement for a limited set of securities from March 28, and the market timing will be one continuous session between 9:15 AM and 1:30 PM.

Stock exchanges will release the names of the scrips and the brokers in a later day.

F&O Expiry

The March derivative series is set to expire in the week ahead, and this will induce some volatility in the market. It will be important to see how traders are carrying forward positions to the April series in the run-up to the general elections.

Broader Market Action

The broader market has been in the news of late, but unfortunately for the wrong reasons. The increasing regulatory scrutiny in midcap and smallcap stocks has increased volatility and has dampened the overall momentum in the market.

Last week, smallcap stocks rebounded and the BSE Smallcap index gained 1.8%.

However, the movement in the stocks in the near term will be closely monitored by the market.

Global Markets

Market participants will continue to take cues from the global indices, especially the US markets, which are moving from strength to strength with every passing week.

The major index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is set to test a new milestone of 40,000 and the support base has shifted to 39200 in case of any profit-taking, Mishra said.

Nifty 50 Rejig

The rejig in Nifty 50 announced last month by the National Stock Exchange of India will come into effect from March 28. Some inflows are likely ahead of the rejig.

Shriram Finance is replacing UPL in the benchmark index, and its entry is expected to result in inflows of $245 million, according to Nuvama Alternative and Quantitative Research. Meanwhile, the exit of UPL will drive outflows of $107 million.

Bond Yields

Movement in the bond yields will be closely tracked, as this will influence foreign capital flows. Last week, US bond yields came off its three-month high after the US Federal Reserve retained its guidance of three rate cuts in 2024.

FII Flows

Inflows from foreign investors will continue to be tracked, and that will hinge upon the movement in bond yields and the underlying sentiment in the broader market.

Foreign portfolio investors turned net sellers in the secondary market last week, selling stocks worth over Rs 7,200 crore on Dalal Street.

Corporate Action

The board of Larsen & Toubro will meet on March 27 to consider and approve fundraising, including by way of debt issue.

On the same day, public sector majors REC Ltd, NHPC, and NLC India will also be holding board meetings to consider and approve the market borrowing progamme proposal for 2024-25 (April-March).

IPO Watch

The primary market is set to end FY24 with a bang with as many as 13 IPOs scheduled to be launched in the week ahead. Out of these, 12 will be in the SME segment, along with a sole mainboard issue of SRM Contractors.

Apart from the new issues, the Street will also see one listing of Chatha Foods, which will take place on March 27.

Analysts expect the IPO momentum to persist in the coming financial year as well, with larger deals on the horizon.

Technical Indicators

Having ended marginally higher on Friday, the Nifty 50 has formed a green candle with minor upper shadow on the daily charts. On the weekly scale, a small positive candle with a long lower shadow was seen.

The short-term trend of Nifty 50 remains positive. A sharp move above the hurdle of 22200-22300 levels could pull the index towards new all-time highs around 22550 levels. Immediate support is at 22,880 levels, said Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)


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