Leading oil and gas player ONGC is expected to report subdued, but steady numbers for the third quarter ended December 2023 on the back of weak crude and gas price realisations.

Net profit for the third quarter is likely to fall around 13% year-on-year (YoY), according to an average estimate of four brokerages. On a sequential basis, profit is seen dropping by a marginal 1%.

Revenue from operations in the third quarter may drop 9% YoY, an average estimate of four brokerages shows.

EBITDA for the quarter will largely be flat quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), as marginally higher crude oil/gas sales will likely be offset by marginally lower realizations.

In the second quarter, ONGC recorded a 65% YoY rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 13,734 crore and revenue from operations dropped 13% to Rs 1.47 lakh crore.

Here’s what analysts expect from ONGC’s Q3

Kotak Equities

We model overall crude oil sales volumes of 4.7 mmt, natural gas sales volumes at 4.1 bcm and gross crude price realization of US$82.6/bbl and net oil price realization (post-royalty, windfall tax and cess) of $52/bbl, as lower Brent prices would be partly offset by reduction in windfall taxes.

Motilal Oswal

Oil realization (before windfall tax) to decline 6% year-on-year, in line with brent movement in 3QFY24. Expect oil and gas sales volumes to grow 1% QoQ. VAP sales to also expand 1% QoQ.

Update on first oil from the KG Basin and ramp-up of gas production remain the key monitorable. Further delay in oil production from KG Basin or decline in oil prices below USD75/bbl are key downside risks.

JM Financial

Assumed net crude realisation at $72.5 per bbl in line with Brent price less windfall tax of $10 per bbl on domestic crude output. Domestic APM gas realisations to remain flat at $ 6.5/mmbtu. Overall crude sales volume to rise 0.2% QoQ and overall gas sales volume should be up 0.5% QoQ.


We anticipate ONGC EBITDAX to fall 12% YoY. Benchmark crude (Brent) has fallen 7% year-on-year in Q3FY24. APM gas prices have also plunged 24% YoY to $6.5 per mmbtu based on Kirit Parikh committee recommendation applicable from April 2023. We also anticipate 3%/4% YoY dip in oil/gas production (flat QoQ across segment).

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

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