This entire issue of the way Mr Kejriwal’s arrest came about, one section of observers is saying this is vendetta, others are saying that this was the natural way things would have progressed. What is the big surprise out there? How are you analysing it?
Swaminathan Aiyar: I would say both of those statements are true. On the one hand, there is an element of vendetta. On the other hand, Mr Kejriwal has avoided being grilled by the ED again and again, saying that it is a vendetta. Now, I do not doubt that there is an element of vendetta, but there is vendetta in politics in general. But on the ground of the vendetta, you cannot just keep excusing yourself and refusing to appear before the enforcement director.

The exact timing, coming just after the election announcement, is intended to tar Aam Aadmi Mr Kejriwal’s clean image as an anti-corruption crusader. So, you could argue that there is something to do with the timing of it. But Mr Kejriwal has to be fought on two grounds. One, his refusal to appear before the ED repeatedly. Second, the plain troublesome fact is that there appears to be some very serious questions that Kejriwal does have to answer.

Now, the sad fact is, that politicians in every state make money out of liquor licenses. This is an open secret. It is not new. But as they say in politics, there is an Eleventh Commandment, thou shall not get caught. In this particular case, it appears various witnesses have come forward to in fact openly say that this kind of apparent money was going to change hands. Because of that, Mr Sisodia is already in jail. It was only a matter of time before they were going to act against Mr Kejriwal as well.

So, all I can say is that yes, there is an element of vendetta. Yes, it is timed with an eye to the election. On the other hand, we have a situation where politics, unfortunately, has been too dirty in the past. There used to be a kind of gentleman’s agreement or others might call it honour among thieves, that politicians criticise the other side terribly, saying, you are so corrupt, so corrupt, but then when you come to office yourself, you take it easy on prosecuting the other side, saying, you see, we all have so many skeletons on our cupboard that let us not be too aggressive on this particular issue.

I would say the change that has taken place is that Mr Modi has been extremely aggressive and has not been afraid of retaliation from the other side and this really, if you ask me, is a very interesting question. Because let us face it, while the central government controls the enforcement directorate and tax authorities, the state police are controlled by the chief ministers. So, if there is vendetta being done by the BJP, what is there to stop the opposition chief ministers from also using their police for vendettas, arresting top BJP politicians? I mean, the truth is that if you look at laws of sedition, unlawful activity, causing enmity, almost anybody can be arrested for saying anything. So, to me, the really interesting thing is that the BJP has gone all out targeting various opposition politicians, but the opposition CMs have been reluctant to target central government ministers and this, to me, is the intriguing question. Why is that so? Is it that the state governments themselves have such dirty hands that they do not want to get into this kind of confrontation or perhaps it is just that the central government has various ways of punishing the state government by not releasing funds and therefore, the opposition chief ministers are not keen on getting into a tit for tat on this.A quick observation on the way momentum is panning out? Mr Modi and most of his ministers on several platforms have been very confidently claiming that abki bar charso paar (over 400 seats this time) and stuff like that. How are things on the ground? You are a very keen observer of things on ground. Does it indicate that way?
Swaminathan Aiyar: I have not yet done an election tour and I will do so in the coming weeks. At this point of time, there is a certain plausibility. I mean, initially, I thought that the BJP would come back to power with a reduced measure. But now the BJP has struck alliances. It now has alliances with Nitish Kumar, Naveen Patnaik, with TDP. Because of all these new alliances, NDA has expanded and it can expect to get more seats in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and other places. Its partners’ seats will be part of the NDA as well.

So, is it possible that the NDA will win with an increased majority? It is possible. Will they get to as much as 400 seats? I doubt it. But certainly, they are in the driver’s seat. I do not think anybody doubts that they will be back in power, even if it is with a reduced majority, it will be a comfortable majority.

We recently interacted and interviewed RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das and he went on to say that this year growth will be closer to 8% and the momentum on economic growth may continue and the visibility is very strong for two-three years, closer to 7% next year. What are your observations on the momentum on ground as far as economic growth is concerned?
Swaminathan Aiyar: Without doubt, India’s performance in the current financial year has been outstanding and exceeded all expectations. There was a general expectation among some pessimists like Shankar Acharya that it might be 5.5%. Even an optimist like the Chief Economic Advisor said maybe 6.5%. Yet for three quarters in a row, the growth has exceeded 8%. Not only that, this has happened at a time when the world is in very serious trouble.

Economist Larry Summers said the world is on fire in 2023. About 70 countries have gone to the IMF for rescues, including our neighbours – Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh. India is a rock of stability in the middle of this storm and in such difficult conditions to be doing 8% for three quarters in a row is a very impressive performance. Does it automatically mean we are on some kind of automatic 8% growth path for the years ahead? No. I mean, you cannot jump to that conclusion. The truth is that it is always very unclear in India what the trend is.

If you take the five years of Modi’s second term, GDP growth has actually been lower than in the five years of the first term. So, there were many people who said that things are going wrong. Now, the people who said things are going wrong are being disproved in the current financial year quite conclusively. At the same time, let us not jump to the conclusion that we have suddenly leapt on to a new high growth path and we are there forever. The world is full of all kinds of potential problems. Let us not underestimate the chances of something going wrong.