A year ago when Adani Group was ambushed by the explosive report of Hindenburg Research, a lesser-known US investor – Rajiv Jain – made over Rs 15,000 crore worth contra bet on the group stocks through his firm GQG Partners.

This bet has indeed turned out to be a worthy one for the firm, as the market value of the investment firm’s holding in Adani Group companies has more than doubled in a year.

On March 2, 2023, GQG Partners acquired stakes in Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Adani Energy Solutions (erstwhile Adani Transmission), and Adani Green Energy for a cumulative value of Rs 15,446 crore.

The market value of Jain’s investments in the companies has more than doubled to Rs 34,489 crore in a year.

“I am excited to have initiated positions in the Adani companies…We believe that the long-term growth prospects for these companies are substantial, and we are pleased to be investing in companies that will help advance India’s economy and energy infrastructure, including their energy transition over the long-run,” Jain, the chairman and CIO of GQG Partners then said.Jain did not stop with the initial investment made in the four companies in March. In a year, GQG nearly doubled down its holding in two Adani firms and also bought fresh stakes in two other companies.In the June quarter, Jain further invested in Adani Enterprises and Adani Green Energy and bought a fresh stake in Ambuja Cements.

His confidence in the group only strengthened even though investigations by the Securities and Exchange Board of India were ongoing as directed by the Supreme Court.

In August last year, GQG Partners invested over $1 billion in Adani Power.

What changed in last one year?

Over the last one year, the group’s efforts to deleverage the balance sheet, reduce debt at the promoter level, and continue with its plans to grow the businesses to a considerable extent aided the recovery in the stocks.

Adani Group portfolio delivered its highest-ever quarterly profit in the December quarter.

The Supreme Court’s ruling that there was no need for transfer the probe to other investigative bodies from SEBI, and restoring the credibility of the market regulator was the cherry on the cake for Adani Group.

All these factors drove the strong recovery in Adani Group stocks.

Since the investment by GQG Partners, market value of four Adani Group stocks have more than doubled.

Also Read | 3 Adani stocks prove invincible after 1 year of Hindenburg attack

Near-term outlook

Whether it’s the buy side or the sell side of Dalal Street, the confidence in the group has strengthened and analysts are betting big on the prospects of businesses across companies.

Jefferies India expects Adani Enterprises’ consolidated operating profit to double in FY26 and then grow by 3 times by FY28.

Jefferies believes that the new businesses – Green Hydrogen, Airports, Data Center, Roads, Copper – will emerge as industry leaders in the future for Adani.

The brokerage firm last month initiated coverage on the stock with a price target of Rs 3,800.

Before Jefferies, US-based brokerage firm Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an overweight rating on Adani Enterprises and set a target price of Rs 4,368 for the stock.

“While that report (Hindenburg) brought to light serious concerns, we believe the company has taken actions to reduce liquidity risk (from share-backed loans), improve governance, and increase transparency. Thus, at this juncture, we believe Adani is too big to ignore, and for India, we believe the country needs Adani as much as Adani needs the country,” said Cantor analysts Brett Knoblauch and Thomas Shinske.

So, it does look like Adani bulls are holding onto their strings tight and are ready to ride over the bears.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)