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The new business premium (NBP) during the third quarter is expected to fall 6% year-on-year to Rs 48,811 crore, and the annualised premium equivalent (APE) is seen dropping 9% year-on-year, according to YES Securities.
The value of new business (VNB) is also likely to fall 8% year-on-year to Rs 1,841 crore in the quarter ended December.
The growth assumptions are based on trends observed till November 2023, when LIC had displayed NBP and APE growth of 7% and -11%, respectively for October and November 2023.
YES Securities estimated VNB margins expansion of 20bps quarter-on-quarter based on expected business mix changes.
Shares of LIC had a stellar run in the recent past, scaling lifetime peak of Rs 1,050 following 71% spike in the last 3 months. LIC, which was struggling to cross its IPO price of Rs 949 in 2022, have now breached the Rs 1,000-mark.In December, the finance ministry had granted time to the PSU insurer for complying with 25% minimum public shareholding till 2032. The stock has been rallying since then as the exemption reduces the possibility of an offer for sale (OFS) by the government.In May 2022, the government had sold 3.5% stake in LIC IPO which was an entirely (offer for sale) worth around Rs 21,000 crore. It remains India’s largest IPO till date.
Analysts expect the positive upside to continue on expectations of growth revival in FY25, and the possibility of a step change in dividend will continue to support its share price performance.
“With the worst, in terms of structural issues of growth differential and sticky cost, now likely to be behind, LIC shares have entered the outperformance mode since H1FY24 results, led by favorable valuation, strong EV growth on account of buoyant equity markets, hope of growth revival in FY25 owing to a favorable base and widening of product offering, and likely hope of a step jump in dividend,” Emkay Global had said.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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