Exactly on this day a year ago, the Indian stock market had woken up to an explosive report from a hitherto unknown entity on Dalal Street. Before investors could finish reading the summary of the 106-page Hindenburg report, Adani stocks started falling like ninepins.

In next seven trading sessions, as the issue erupted into a major controversy criss-crossing the domains of business, markets and politics, the combined market value of all 10 Adani stocks halved to Rs 9.3 lakh crore. Ripples were felt across the market due to the domino effect.

In the meantime, whistle-blower Hindenburg profited by taking short positions in Adani Group Companies through US-traded bonds and non-Indian-traded derivative instruments.

Also read | Adani-Hindenburg case verdict explained

A year later, the controversy is not yet over as Sebi hasn’t finished investigating allegations surrounding violation of minimum public shareholding norms, failure to disclose related party transactions and stock manipulation. The Supreme Court has directed the regulator to finish the pending investigation within 3 months.

Adani stocks
While it is anyone’s guess whether Adani stocks will regain past glory of the pre-Hindenburg era, the apple-to-airports conglomerate has managed to soothe investor nerves to some extent by repaying debt, reducing promoter share pledges, winning the trust of new investors like GQG Partners and bagging landmark projects like Dharavi.

The total market value of all 10 Adani stocks have more than doubled from the low point hit in February 2023 but have still left Rs 4.67 lakh crore hole in investor pockets as the total market capitalisation has dipped to Rs 14.53 lakh crore from Rs 19.2 lakh crore.

Shares of Adani Total Gas has been the worst performer in the family with investors sitting at 74% loss in the last one year. Adani Energy Solutions is down 62%, Adani Wilmar 39%, Adani Enterprises 16%, Adani Green Energy 14%, NDTV 7% and ACC 4%.

Three of the stocks – Adani Ports, Adani Power and Ambuja Cements – have managed to defeat the short-seller’s agenda. Adani Power is the top gainer with 89% return in one year while the conglomerate’s cash cow Adani Ports has seen a 47% increase in value since the Hindenburg report was released. Ambuja is also up around 6%.

Also read: Gautam Adani fan raised stakes in these 6 Adani stocks, ITC, Patanjali in Q3

Besides retail investors, Adani’s white knight GQG has also been on a buying spree after leading the rescue in March.

In the December quarter, the holding of GQG Partners in Adani Enterprises rose 21 bps to 2.95% while in Adani Ports it went up 23 bps to 3.76%. In Adani Green Energy, GQG’s ownership shot up 13 bps to 3.68%. The US-based FII, led by Rajiv Jain, also bought more of Adani Energy Solutions, Adani Power and Ambuja Cements during the quarter.

Beyond equity, some of the world’s largest asset managers – BlackRock, State Street and Neuberger Berman raised their holdings of Adani Group dollar bonds in the last one year as depressed prices of the group’s dollar debt likely provided a buying opportunity, according to a Bloomberg report.

A large majority of Adani Group’s 15 dollar bonds trade above 80 cents on the dollar — a level generally considered as the cut-off for a bond being distressed. Several are quoting higher than their January 24, 2023 levels, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

(Data: Ritesh Presswala)

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