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First up, elaborate on your prediction of the normal monsoon. What should we expect there?
GP Sharma: Earlier we shared our preliminary forecast in January and we are retaining almost the same prediction. We did say that the monsoon should be normal, and yes, it is normal. I can say a little on the better side of normal also. Normal ranges from 96% to 104%, that is about the wide range of 8%. This is 102%, which means it should be a good monsoon, in most parts of the country although the monsoon does not behave equally well at all the parts 100%.
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But notwithstanding that, monsoon should be good this year for most parts of the country. As we have given the forecast now, the 102% plus minus 5% is the model error, the margin, which we have, means it can be plus five and minus five at this stage. The start of the monsoon, we expect to be a little jerky, maybe a little aberrated. And this is because El Nino is still there. It has not vanished. It is refusing to collapse or dilute sharply or quickly.
So, keeping that in mind, the ENSO condition, that is the neutral conditions will gradually take place around that time in the month of June. Therefore, the onset of the monsoon may not be as we normally desire, that the monsoon should arrive with a bang. But it should catch up with the normal distribution also. The core monsoon months of July and August should behave well for most parts of the country. Yes, a little caution comes for the northeastern and eastern parts. Eastern parts comprise Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and maybe parts of Orissa, where there could be a little below normal monsoon for the season as such.
But A good amount of rains as well as the distribution all around the West Coast, even Mumbai. Mumbai should have a typical monsoon season this year.
What you are saying perhaps is a late start to the monsoon. Does that mean that we are going to have a longer summer and shorter monsoon this time?
GP Sharma: You see, we do not expect that it will start late. At this moment, it is a little too early to commit to that. The onset of monsoon that we generally give sometime around the middle of May or a little earlier than that, maybe the first week of May itself, but then monsoon arrives over the Indian subcontinent, over the Bay Islands, sometime even around 15th of May. It enters the mainland around 1st of June. What we are saying is that the monsoon may not arrive with a bang. It may not be very pronounced activity at that point of time. The initial phase could be a little slower than normal. It usually advances very rapidly. Within a week or ten days, we find it reaching Mumbai, so that may not happen. But then it is a little too early to give the details on that. So the start of the monsoon could be a little jerky, but it will catch up quickly in June itself. So, the summers will go on as usual. As of today, the temperatures have not reached 40 anywhere over North India, which normally is seen around April 10. It is a comfortable dry heat at the moment, 35 degree, 36 degree, that is all. Yes, the southern parts have heated up. It is a good indication also. As far as the monsoon over other parts – central, southern and western parts are concerned, inclusive of the pockets where you always have a scare of the drought-prone pockets, that will not happen over those areas. Overall, after the dampener, which we had last year in terms of below normal monsoon, giving some scare in some pockets as distribution was unequitable. That may not happen this time. It will be -much better than what we experienced last year.
We are reading the headlines which suggest El Nino is flipping over into La Nina. For a layman, help us understand what is the significance of this and how it will impact the weather patterns.
GP Sharma: El Nino is known for its adverse impact on monsoon. Though La Nina is considered good for the monsoon as such, but the relationship with the monsoon of El Nino is very strong, it adversely affects. The relationship of La Nina with the monsoon, though it is considered good as such is not a very robust relationship. The only assurance which La Nina gives you is possibly saves you from a below normal or a drought condition. It could end up with a normal, decent normal that is the La Nina conditions.
La Nina and El Nino conditions are basically related to the warming of the Pacific Ocean. When the warming is around the equatorial tropical belt of the Pacific Ocean, it is El Nino and when temperatures are cooler than the normal range of temperatures over that area, we say it is the La Nina condition. Last year, there was a super El Nino. The temperatures crossed two degrees centigrade above norma;. We are changing over from super El Nino conditions to the La Nina conditions in the monsoon.
La Nina after El Nino has a historic record of behaving well and giving decent monsoon and that is what we expect this time. After super El Nino in 2023, La Nina may start a little late in the middle or end of June, but historic record says, La Nina after super El Nino is better than a normal La Nina.
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